Israel has repeatedly stated that a nuclear Iran is an unacceptable proposition. It’s safe to speculate that Iran’s nuclear capabilities will be set back years, if not decades, after Israel concludes its offensive. Regime change, however, does not come without its costs. While many Israelis believe regime change would be beneficial, a potential outcome could be a more hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-led government, potentially leading to an increasingly intense and perpetual conflict.

The S&P 500 plummeted more than 10% over the subsequent three days, and at its lows, the index was down 19% from February record highs. Investor anxiety was through the roof, as retirees watched their relatively secure portfolios get hammered. The President quickly shifted, announced the 90-day pause, and the rollercoaster shifted in the opposite direction. The market has recovered with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 now positive for the year. A constructive trade deal with the United Kingdom and advanced conversations with China on lowering tariffs have also bolstered investor confidence. But it would behoove the President to take into consideration the long-term effects of elevated tariffs. His base support is seeking economic security.

I typically don't ruminate on paper/screen this frequently. My actual job gets in the way. But President Trump is visiting his bestie, Governor Newsom, today, Friday, January 24, 2024, and away from the small talk around how long LeBron can keep it up or whether Northern Californian tacos can compare to Southern, at some point, they'll get to ... fire relief.

Over the past two decades, a loss of older, thick ice has created new channels. Before 2018 there were virtually no bulk carriers or gas tankers in the Polar Code area, but the Yamal Gas project and the Mary River Mine in Nunavut have contributed to a swell in activity. Chinese President Xi stated in a visit to Moscow in 2023 that stronger diplomatic relations with Russia were vital to counteract, “a long campaign by the United States to hobble China’s ascent.”

Also known as “shock therapy,” outside observers predicted this campaign fulfillment would result in a rise in poverty. No surprises here but rates this high do risk derailing what could be the region’s biggest turnaround story in decades. Milei and his supporters rightly point out that since Q3, there has been an emerging rise in real wages.6 This has contributed to greater economic activity and some analysts believe the recession likely ended in Q2 2024.7 The President was fully transparent with the electorate during his campaign, communicating frequently that there would be short-term pain and a recession. While some critical welfare programs have been cut, Milei has in parallel expanded the Universal Child Allowance and a popular Food Card program providing support to families in need.

In June, venture capitalist David Sacks held a swanky fundraiser for the former President in his Pacific Heights, San Francisco mansion. Guests paid up to $300,000, with rumored attendees spanning the C-suites of some of the U.S.'s largest crypto and blockchain companies. Meanwhile, it didn’t take much work for Trump’s team to compile a list of the regulatory crackdowns occurring at the hands of the Securities and Exchange Commission Chair, Gary Gensler. A Biden appointee, Gensler has sued crypto companies for violating securities laws and sought to dissuade banks from serving crypto companies.

It is still unclear how many members of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah were killed when thousands of member pagers exploded simultaneously. Just the next day, Hezbollah walkie-talkies suffered similar malfunctions. Sadly, news of bombings, explosions, and death is commonplace in 2024 in the Middle East. But this latest operation, likely at the hands of Israeli intelligence tacticians, has news outlets and pundits questioning the role of of global supply chains, rightly or wrongly.

Unlike President Biden, the Vice President has little trade policy experience. Some pundits suggest she might consider pushing the US back to a more aggressive international digital trade policy with a particular emphasis on Californian tech company interests, her home base. Optimists are hoping that Harris could introduce some much-needed dynamism to trade negotiations, as the past four years have been uncharacteristically stagnant. Meanwhile, Trump is expected to wield his favorite negotiating stick - the tariff.

In addition to the regulations, banks were also constrained from making further loans to developers. President Xi assumed these short-term band-aids could stave off a pending disaster, but in August 2021, the country’s second-largest property developer, the Evergrande Group, promptly halted construction. Overdue payments were at the core of the stoppage, and the following month, Evergrande missed two offshore bond coupon payments for a total of $131 million.

Washington’s worry is two-fold: expanding Chinese influence in the region and the potential for future military installations. While BRI projects have grown significantly, and the Chinese potential for expanded military presence is vast, to date China operates just one logistics base in Djibouti and a paramilitary outpost in Tajikistan. Yet, a recent RAND report details Chinese interest in Cambodia, Equatorial Guinea, Namibia, the Solomon Islands, the UAE, and Vanuatu. Couple those with a March 2024 Newsweek report of additional interest in Cuba, Pakistan, Tanzania, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar, Washington’s anxiety does not appear irrational.

Factories in countries like Poland or Romania come with higher labor costs but minimal geopolitical hurdles. The shift away from China and other single country or region suppliers began to take shape during the Covid pandemic. Factory shutdowns, transportation delays, and rising shipping costs unnerved suppliers and further incentivized the search for new providers. In addition to international tensions with Russia and Iran, supply chains are squeezed with fewer and fewer options.

I have had the good fortune of working with folks around the world. The US is by far the only place where it is still taboo to talk about who you are going to vote for. There are a lot of theories on the subject, but it’s 2024, and if there was ever a year people were remaining tight-tipped, we’re in it. So, while my conversation with my Dad did not veer into the treacherous waters of Biden or Trump, we did have an interesting back-and-forth about the perceptions of the economy and the country and whether the data support people’s feelings.

A 2021 Congressional Research Service report found that steel plays a vital role in critical infrastructure projects, missile systems, and overall defense. Politically, practically no issues achieve bipartisan support in 2024, yet protecting the steel industry is one. Key swing states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota employ tens of thousands of steelworkers, and both candidates are vying for their support.

President Biden has been trying to have it both ways with energy policy. While simultaneously approving controversial drilling ventures, the President is now flirting with an LNG (liquified natural gas) export ban. In an attempt to appease the environmentalist flank of the party, the administration is taking a “second look” at the criteria employed to approve new LNG export projects. The US began shipping LNG exports in 2016 and now exports more than any other country. The President is in a thorny position as renewables are far from a viable replacement for oil and gas, something a portion of his base remains in wild disagreement with.

Consensus is never easy. Folks are unique, and while countries try their hardest to engender shared values, norms, and policies, getting multiple countries to agree on a single issue or theme is rare. As a global community, we’ve done it, but it’s often exhausting along the way. Last year roughly 140 nations agreed to overhaul the rules governing the taxation of profits by companies doing business in more than one country. In today’s globalized world, there are a lot of these. The group’s stated objective was to tax those businesses that are digital in nature and profit off consumers everywhere from Sidney to Taipei, Cape Town, and even Montevideo. The first part of the proposal is known as Pillar One.